Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
