Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
